Projections of cancer incidence and mortality

The absolute number of cancer cases has increased continuously during the last decades in Austria. This trend will also continue in the near future based on the ageing of the population as cancer is primarily a disease of the elderly. The number of people aged 65 and older will increase strongly from 1.57 million in 2014 to 2.17 million in 2030 (+38%). Newly diagnosed cancer cases will increase from 38 218 cases in 2009 to 41 299 in 2020 (+8%) and to 43 706 cases in 2030 (+14%). During the same period, the absolute number of cancer deaths will increase from 19 547 deaths in 2009 to 20 897 in 2020 (+7%) and to 22 707 cancer deaths in 2030 (+16%).

For both, men and women, the projections up to 2030 are not that different. However, for lung cancer a strong decrease in incidence and mortality will be seen for men while these trends will further increase for women in the future. To exclude the influence of age, age-standardised incidence rates were calculated. The projections show that the age-standardised incidence rate will decrease from 275 cases per 100 000 persons in 2010 to 234 cases in 2030. Age-standardised mortality rates will also decrease from 108 deaths per 100 000 persons in 2010 to 96 cases in 2030. Despite the reduced cancer risk, population ageing will raise the number of cancer cases in the future.

A detalied methodological description of the prediction of cancer incidence and cancer mortality up to 2030 was published in the scientific journal “Demographic Research”: Klotz, J., Hackl, M., Schwab, M., Hanika, A., and Haluza, D. (2019): „Combining population projections with quasi-likelihood models: A new way to predict cancer incidence and cancer mortality in Austria up to 2030“. Demographic Research, Volume 40, Article 19, pp. 503-532.

Please consult our German website for tables and charts containing further information.

Results (overview): Trends and Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality

Projections of Cancer Incidence and MortalityPrice in € *)Free Download

 
 

Jahrbuch der Gesundheitsstatistik 2017
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Jahrbuch der Gesundheitsstatistik 2016
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Release date: 03/2018 ISBN:978-3-903106-740-3

 
 

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Jahrbuch der Gesundheitsstatistik 2015
This statistical compendium on the health care system in Austria provides information on a wide range of topics relating to illness in the population (cancer incidences, hospital admissions, etc.) as ...

Release date: 02/2017 ISBN:978-3-903106-31-4

 
 

53,00

 
 

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Krebserkrankungen in Österreich 2020
The sixth edition of “Cancer in Austria” (previously known as Cancer Incidence and Cancer Mortality in Austria) presents national and regional cancer profiles in terms of number of cases, rates and ...

Release date: 04/2020 ISBN:978-3-903264-40-3

 
 

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Krebserkrankungen in Österreich 2018
The sixth edition of “Cancer in Austria” (previously known as Cancer Incidence and Cancer Mortality in Austria) presents national and regional cancer profiles in terms of number of cases, rates and ...

Release date: 01/2018 ISBN:978-3-903106-71-0

 
 

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(PDF, 14 MB)

 
 

Krebserkrankungen in Österreich 2016
The fifth edition of “Cancer in Austria” (previously known as Cancer Incidence and Cancer Mortality in Austria) presents national and regional cancer profiles in terms of number of cases, rates and ...

Release date: 01/2016 ISBN:978-3-902925-92-3

 
 

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(PDF, 4 MB)

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