Statistische Nachrichten - Summaries January 2022

Population Projection 2021-2080 (2100)

Update of the Generation of Projections 2019 for the Provinces

The Austrian population will increase to 9.47 million people until 2040 (+6%) and to 9.94 million in 2080 (+11%), according to the actual population projection by Statistics Austria. It is based on assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration. In 2020, the reference year for the projection, the population amounted to 8.92 million. According to the main scenario, the population development will vary substantially among the nine provinces during the next decades. Vienna, the capital of Austria (+19%) is expected to have the most marked population growth till 2080, followed by Lower Austria (+17%), Burgenland (+13%), Upper Austria (+12%), Vorarlberg and Tyrol (each +10%), Salzburg (+7%) and Styria (+3%). Carinthia is the only province with an expected population loss till 2080 (-7%).

Children and youngsters under 20 years are projected to account for a smaller proportion of the total population, namely 18.6% in 2080 as compared to 19.3% in 2020. The majority of the provinces will follow this trend, except Vienna, where the proportion of those under 20 is expected to stay roughly constant. As the “baby-boom generation” (those born between 1955 and 1970) will reach retirement age after 2020, the size of the elderly population (ages 65 and over) is projected to increase in all nine provinces. Thus for Austria as a whole, the proportion of the elderly population will grow from 19.2% in 2020 to 29.4% by 2080. By then, Burgenland (35%) as well as Carinthia (33%) are expected to remain the “oldest” regions while the western part of Austria together with Vienna will still rank as the “youngest” regions. Vienna will hold a share of 25% elderly people by 2080. The average age of Austria’s population will significantly increase over the next decades from 43.1 (2020) to 47.5 years (2080).

In 2020 about 1.78 million foreign-born people lived in Austria. This averages 20% of the total population. The number of this population group will rise to 2.25 million (+26%) by 2040 and to 2.67 million (+50%) by 2080. The share of the foreign-born population will increase to 24% (2040) and 27% (2080) respectively. Currently Vienna holds a population share of 37% foreign-born, which will increase to over 40% after 2030.

CPI of November 2021

The inflation rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI, base year 2020) in November 2021 was 4.3% (October 2021: 3.7%). This was the highest value since May 1992. Expenditures for transport (+12.2% compared to November 2020; including fuels +38.7%) proved to be the most important price driver, followed by expenditures for housing, water and energy (+5.3%; including heating oil +64.5% and electricity +10.2%). The CPI 2020 was at 104.8, while the average price level increased by 0.7% compared to October 2021. The index level of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP, base year 2015) was 113.64 in November 2021 (October 2021: 113,03 revised) with a harmonised inflation rate at 4.1%.

The lockdown starting on 22 November had no impact on the calculation of the November inflation rate. For further in-depth explanation of the general principles and applied computation methods, please refer to the methodological information note on the compilation of the CPI in the context of COVID-19 (discontinued August 2021) in the internet or to the article “Effects of COVID-19 on the calculation of the Consumer Price Index – Information on methodology”.

Household Budget Survey 2019/20 and National Accounts

Comparison

This article compares the results of the Austrian Household Budget Survey 2019/20 with the data of National Accounts 2019. The household budget survey reached an expenditure volume of about 81.6% of the values of national accounts for the year 2019 and 83.0% for the survey period. Within the specific expenditure groups both sources provide quite different amounts. It is essential for the interpretation of the results to consider the different concepts and methods for these statistics.

Research and Experimental Development 2019

International comparison

This article presents internationally comparable data about Research and Development (R&D) with a specific focus on 2019. In 2019, the research intensity of the EU has reached 2.23%. In Austria, the research intensity 2019 was, according to Eurostat’s calculation, 3.13%, which is the fourth highest value within the EU after Sweden, Belgium and Germany. In 2019, altogether EUR 312 billion were spent on R&D in the EU-27. 67% of total R&D expenditures were spent by enterprises, and 21% in the higher education sector. Around 2.9 million people (in full-time equivalents) were engaged in R&D, of which only 35% were females. The government funding for R&D via the national budgets of the EU countries amounted to around EUR 101 billion. A stronger increase could be monitored since 2017, after a stagnation in the years before. For 2020, the year the COVID-19 crisis started, the research intensity for the EU-27 is estimated having reached 2,32%, based on preliminary data. The increase of the research intensity by 0.09 percentage points is due to the slump of economic performance in 2020, paralleled by a stagnation of the R&D expenditures.