Press release: 12.374
Population forecast 2020: from 2021, more elderly people than children and teenagers
Migration gains exceed projected birth deficits
The expected increase in population is exclusively due to supposed migration gains of about 30 000 people per year. This continues a long-standing trend: Since the turn of the century, the Austrian population has increased mainly due to migration surpluses. In the 2001 census, Austria counted just over 8 million inhabitants for the first time, the annual average in 2010 was 8.36 million. By 2019, there was a further increase by 6% to 8.88 million. Of the growth since the turn of the century, only just below 5% were due to birth surpluses, while the majority was due to migration gains. As the number of deaths is expected to rise above the number of births in the coming years, the birth balance will thus become negative. Nevertheless, according to current calculations, the population will exceed the nine million mark in 2022. A further increase is also likely for the period thereafter, as the projected migration gains will exceed the losses from natural population change.
Strongest population growth at retirement age
The population aged 65 and over will continue to grow strongly in number and proportion. From 2021, more people aged 65+ will be living in Austria than children and young people under 20. Apart from stagnating birth rates and a presumably continuing increase in life expectancy, this is mainly due to the strong birth cohorts of the 1950s and 1960s, who are gradually moving into retirement age. In 2040, the population aged 65+ should be by 48% (or more than 800 000 persons) larger than in 2019, while at the same time their share in the population will increase from 18.9% to 26.4%. The number of people in working age from 20 to under 65 years will remain slightly above the 2019 level until 2021, but, until 2040, will fall by almost 300 000 people (5%) below the current level (see table 1). After 2040, the number of people of working age is projected to remain largely constant. Although the absolute number of children and young people under the age of 20 will still increase slightly, their share in the total population will decline in the medium term from 19.3% (2019) to 18.8% (2040).
Proportion of foreign-born population to increase from 20% to 27% in the long term
Assuming continued international immigration, the
number of foreign-born people in Austria will continue to increase in
the future. In 2019, 1.75 million foreign-born people (20% of the total
population) were living in Austria (see table 1). According to the forecast,
their number will rise to 2.23 million
Eastern regions of Austria show strongest growth
The 12% population growth forecast for Austria up to 2080 will be distributed very unevenly across the regions. Above-average increases are expected in Vienna. The federal capital alone attracts almost 40% of the international immigration to Austria. According to the forecast, Vienna will exceed the two million mark in 2028, as it last did at the beginning of the 20th century. In Carinthia, on the other hand, slight population losses are expected, as was already the case between 2010 and 2013 and in 2018, which will cause the population to fall behind Salzburg from 2021 onwards. Salzburg will thus become the sixth largest federal state in terms of population. Besides Vienna, above-average population growth is also forecasted for Lower Austria, while the trend in Salzburg and Styria is below the federal average. The expected population growth in Burgenland as well as in Upper Austria, Tyrol and Vorarlberg is largely in line with the forecasted average for Austria. (see table 2).
on methods, definitions: To calculate the forecast, the population
differentiated by age, gender and country of birth is extrapolated into
the future as of 1 January 2020. The population ages by one year per
calendar year. The new birth cohorts of a forecast year are calculated
using age-specific fertility rates (live births by age of mother). Deaths
are calculated by multiplying age- and gender-specific mortality rates
by population size. While international emigration is calculated from
rates in the same way as deaths, immigration is given in absolute figures
(also according to age and gender). In the long term, 145 000 immigrants
are expected annually. With around 115 000 people moving away, this results
in annual migration gains of around 30 000 people. The internal migration
between the nine federal states of Austria is modelled by means of age-,
gender- and direction-specific migration rates.
When interpreting the results according to the characteristic "born in Austria/abroad", it should be noted that this is not a forecast of the population of Austria according to nationality ("foreigner forecast"). The future development of the population according to citizenship depends not only on international immigration and emigration (and of course also on their fertility and mortality), but in particular on the development of naturalisation rates. These depend largely on future political conditions and are therefore difficult to anticipate. In contrast, the feature chosen here, "country of birth", remains unchanged for the lifetime of the respective person.
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Social Statistics. Statistics Austria:
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