Press release: 11.903-214/18

The Austrian population will grow to 10 million inhabitants by 2080; labour force increases by 5%

Vienna, 2018-11-22 – The Austrian population will increase to 9.53 million people by 2040 (+8%) and to 9.97 million by 2080 (+13%), according to the new population projection by Statistics Austria based on assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration. In 2017, the reference year for the projection, the population amounted to 8.80 million.

Regional development: highest population growth in Vienna

According to the main scenario, the population development will vary substantially among the nine Länder (federal states) during the following decades. Vienna, the capital of Austria (+21%), is expected to have the most remarkable population growth by 2080, closely followed by Lower Austria (+20%), Burgenland (+18%), Tyrol (+13%), Upper Austria and Vorarlberg (+11% each), Salzburg (+8%) and Styria (+6%). Carinthia is the only state with an expected population loss by 2080 (-4%).

Population growth will be accompanied by ageing

Children and youngsters below 20 years of age are projected to account for a slightly smaller proportion of the total population, namely 19% in 2080 compared to 20% in 2017. The majority of the Länder will follow this trend, apart from Vienna, where rising proportions are expected. As the "baby-boom generation" (those born between 1955 and 1970) will reach the retirement age after 2020, the size of the elderly population (ages 65 and over) is projected to increase in all nine Länder. Therefore in Austria, as a whole, the proportion of the elderly population will grow from 19% in 2017 to 29% in 2080. By then, Burgenland (34%) as well as Carinthia (33%) are expected to remain the "oldest" regions, while the western part of Austria together with Vienna will still rank as the "youngest" regions. Vienna will have a percentage of 24% elderly people by 2080. The average age of the Austrian population will significantly increase during the coming decades, from 42.5 (2017) to 47.2 years (2080).

Increase of the foreign born population

In 2017, about 1.68 million people born in a foreign country were living in Austria. This averages at 19% of the total population. The number of this population group will rise by 2040 to 2.23 million (+33%) and by 2080 to 2.59 million (+55%). The percentage of the foreign-born population will increase to 23% (2040) and 26% (2080), respectively. Currently, Vienna has a population share of 36% foreign-born persons, which will increase to more than 40% after the year 2030.

Labour force increases by 5% to 4.79 million until 2050

The number of people in the labour force will rise in the future if the trends in immigration and labour market participation continue. According to Statistics Austria's labour force projection, the size of the economically active population (people in employment and unemployment) will increase by 5% by 2050. In 2017, there were 4.55 million people in the labour force on annual average; in 2020 there will be 4.63 million (+2%) and in 2050 4.79 million (+5%). No further growth is expected in the second half of our century.

For more detailed information please refer to our website and the German press releases on the population projection and the labour force projection for Austria.

 

Information on methods: To calculate the population projection, the population level differentiated by age, gender and country of birth is extrapolated into the future as of 1 January 2018: The population ages by one year per calendar year. The new birth cohorts of a forecast year are calculated using age-specific fertility rates. The deaths result from age- and gender-specific mortality probabilities, which are multiplied by the population levels. While international migration is calculated on the basis of rates analogous to deaths, immigration is given in absolute figures (also according to age and gender). Internal migration between the nine Austrian federal states is modelled using age-, gender- and direction-specific migration rates.  
The labour force projection is based on an extrapolation of age- and gender-specific labour force participation rates by five-year age groups. Multiplied by the main variant of the current population projection, this yields the estimated labour force figures.  
The employment rates are based on the ILO concept (ILO: International Labour Organisation). Thus, they include all persons who work at least one hour a week for pay, or as self-employed, or family workers, as well as unemployed people.

For further inquiries please contact Directorate Social Statistics, Statistics Austria:  
Alexander HANIKA, Tel. +43 (1) 71128-7279 resp. alexander hanika@statistik.gv.at

 

Table 1: Population projection 2017 to 2080 by age and country of birth
YearTotal population, absoluteIn percentForeign-born
Total0 to 19 years20 to 65 years65 and more years0 to 19 years20 to 65 years65 and more yearsTotalIn percent
20178 795 0731 717 0525 442 1871 635 83419.561,918,61 676 09719.1
20208 930 1291 741 4475 479 9321 708 75019.561,419,11 774 90319.9
20309 299 1731 833 6845 318 6432 146 84619.757,223,12 041 31022.0
20409 530 8841 836 0835 204 4002 490 40119.354,626,12 230 18423.4
20509 673 6311 822 0255 210 6802 640 92618.853,927,32 368 03124.5
20609 744 9921 854 9335 151 7292 738 33019.052,928,12 473 74725.4
20709 844 2351 875 0475 165 7832 803 40519.052,528,52 547 12725.9
20809 967 9321 877 7035 207 0842 883 14518.852,228,92 592 06326.0
 
Table 2: Population projection 2017 to 2080 by NUTS 2 regions
NUTS2 Region20172020203020402050206020702080
Austria8 795 0738 930 1299 299 1739 530 8849 673 6319 744 9929 844 2359 967 932
Burgenland292 160296 207311 466322 796329 242333 066338 057344 065
Carinthia560 852560 569562 053559 002551 724542 306538 445539 548
Lower Austria1 667 6301 689 4351 777 1631 845 8981 896 3441 929 4091 966 0562 006 484
Upper Austria1 469 1871 489 9861 544 9511 578 5171 594 2361 597 9951 609 6921 625 476
Salzburg550 976559 849578 055584 980587 411586 941589 192593 515
Styria1 238 0671 245 1991 275 4191 293 4771 299 8411 296 6091 301 0101 312 523
Tyrol748 186761 518796 400817 101828 920832 865838 964847 174
Vorarlberg390 296398 299415 538423 899427 675428 363429 418431 482
Vienna1 877 7191 929 0672 038 1282 105 2142 158 2382 197 4382 233 4012 267 665
Table 3: Labour force projection by NUTS 2 regions
NUTS2 Region20172020203020402050206020702080
Austria4 551 5314 626 0094 722 4184 773 6874 785 7234 746 3224 764 8694 798 349
Burgenland145 775147 124150 455152 288153 333153 041154 395156 052
Carinthia279 521277 687269 481262 424256 165249 560247 798247 727
Lower Austria861 713872 206893 889911 395923 178922 523931 599942 178
Upper Austria776 170784 870787 889793 511790 622777 907778 734782 441
Salzburg291 538296 671299 194298 831296 391291 292290 463291 165
Styria635 577637 870637 673636 244632 421623 916624 366627 126
Tyrol393 983401 618410 461414 159414 211409 012409 067410 892
Vorarlberg204 141208 636212 802213 046210 636206 611205 892206 162
Vienna963 113999 3271 060 5741 091 7891 108 7661 112 4601 122 5551 134 606

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